Calm Like A Bomb (Part 2)

by AW

This is a continuation of my article "Calm Like A Bomb" published on 25th Sept 2008.

The current US financial meltdown and the impending world economic recession, or depression, or recession followed by depression (depending on which economic forecast you're reading) will be extremely dreadful for most people, but perhaps it'd be a blessing in disguise for postponing the other more dreadful matter: the depletion of our most important natural resource, crude oil, which will result in the destruction of civilization.

Before the word "exaggeration" comes to mind, please read the below article which I've compiled from various sources:

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve, whether we're talking about an individual oil field, total oil reserves in a country, or total world reserves.

The peak of the curve coincides with the 50 percent point, meaning oil reserves will have been used up by half. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down.

In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

First, the human population is continuing to rise exponentially. It is currently approaching 6.5 billion, in 1900 it was 1.65 billion, in 1800 it was around a billion, in 1500 it was 500m. The figures show that economic and technological progress is loading the planet with billions more people. By keeping humans alive longer and by feeding them better, progress is continually pushing population levels.

With population comes pollution. The overwhelming scientific consensus is that global warming caused by human activity is happening. According to some estimates, we will pass the point of no return within a decade. Weather systems will change, huge flooding will occur, and human civilisation if not existence will be at risk. This can be avoided if the US and China cut their carbon-dioxide emissions by 50% at once. This won't happen, as they are fighting an economic war with progress as the prize.

There are many other progress-created threats. Oil is one diminishing resource, and fresh water is another, even more vital one. Wars are virtually certain to be fought to gain control of these precious liquids.To support economic growth, the world currently requires more than 30 billion barrels of oil a year. That requirement is constantly increasing, owing to population growth, debt-servicing, and the rapid industrialisation of developing countries such as India and China. But we are about to enter an era in which less oil will be available each year. And many believe that industrial society is doomed.

After I mentioned the above scenario to several friends, the first reaction was "alternative energies are available". But all the energy requirements of the world are not able to be fulfilled by the current technologies of alternative energies. Read further.

When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. all rely on sophisticated technology and energy-intensive forms of metallurgy.

In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, aluminum and platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, and fashioned using oil or natural gas powered machinery.

Every other energy source currently used in modern societies gets a substantial "energy subsidy" from oil. The energy used in uranium mining and reactor construction, for example, comes from diesel rather than nuclear power, just as sunlight doesn’t make solar panels. What rarely seems to have been noticed is the way these "energy subsidies" intersect with the challenges of declining petroleum production to (preemptievely sabotage) the future of alternative energy production in industrial societies.

Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech, oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture. In short, the so called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil.

Ecologists use a technical term, "die-off", to describe what happens when a population grows too big for the resources that sustain it. Where will die-off occur this time? Everywhere. By some estimates, 5 billion of the world's 6½ billion population would never have been able to live without the blessed effects of fossil fuels, and oil in particular: oil powered the pumps that drained the land, and from oil came the chemicals that made intensive farming possible.If oil dries up, we can assume, those 5 billion must starve. And they won't all be in Africa this time. You too may be fighting off neighbours to protect a shrinking stash of canned food, and, when that runs out, foraging for insects in suburban gardens.The consequences would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare.

Dr Richard Duncan, of the Institute on Energy and Man, has monitored the issue for years. "I became deeply depressed when I first concluded that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten and our most cherished monuments will crumble to dust."

This is the peak of human civilization and it will all go downhill from here onwards. It is inevitable. The only doubt is not whether it will happen, but when it will happen. I believe we're all living on borrowed times. We're on the edge of the abyss, but most of us are still ignorant or not aware of it. Our situation is "calm like a bomb." A ticking time-bomb.