30 Aug 2008
Admin
One of Anwar Ibrahim's popular campaign theme at Permatang Pauh was "Anak Melayu Anak Saya, Anak Cina Anak Saya, Anak India Anak Saya…".
In many of Anwar's speeches, he articulated those words with passion and conviction, resulting in thunderous applause from all communities. Anwar has been consistent in delivering this message when giving speeches in Permatang Pauh, regardless of whether it is a Malay-dominated or non-Malay dominated area. On the other hand, UMNO's speeches were filled with racist remarks and sexual allegations. Such extreme negativities summed up the ruling party's five decades of rule.
To summarise some of the comments of bloggers, here are the main reasons for UMNO's demise at Permatang Pauh:
1) Incredibly racist style of campaigning notably
- scaring the Malays that Anwar would sell out their rights and turn Malaysia into another Singapore; playing a divide-and-rule game by portraying Arif Shah as a pro-Chinese candidate on one hand, while attacking Anwar as a Malay traitor,
- a leaflet was circulated calling on the Malays to reject the DAP-led government in Penang, with an image of a pig’s head placed next to the heads of Kit Siang and Karpal,
- a day before the by-election, Umno division chief Ahmad Ismail spoke at a ceramah and called Chinese pendatang (immigrants) and added that “as the Chinese were only immigrants it was impossible to achieve equal rights amongst races”,
- offering scrap metal dealership to Indian constituents; such a degrading gesture only serves to reinforce Indian society's view of how they rank in the scheme of things,
- using Lee Chong Wei as an example that the government does not discriminate against the Chinese in sport; insulting the intelligence of the Chinese community
2) Bringing in so called big guns that are disliked by the people like Wira Ali Rustam, Khairy and Samy Velu.
3) Questionable coincidences
- Anwar being charged shortly after he announces his decision to contest,
- Saiful swearing on the Quran one day before nomination,
(the above coincidences are insulting the intelligence of the public)
4) Nallakaruppan & Ezam - one bragged he has 5 recordings and the other has 6 boxes full of evidence, neither produced any evidence but they went ahead with their smear campaign against Anwar anyway,
5) Abuse of religion and mass media
- the sodomy smear campaign caused a backlash from the voters ; most people are disgusted with UMNO's abuse of primetime TV to telecast such obscenities,
- not forgeting the footage was also played over and over again at Permatang Pauh during UMNO ceramahs, with well-known personalities taking distasteful potshots and challenging Anwar to swear on the Quran although he has stated time and again his reason for not doing so. This was done despite opinion polls from merdeka center clearly indicating that most people did not believe the allegations.
6) Offering development funds if they win - blatant bribery (or threat) to the public simply don't work anymore,
7) Campaign drive - While Anwar campaigned on grounds of justice, equality and an end to corrupt practices, the BN campaign was largely seen as a “smear Anwar campaign”.
Fast facts of Anwar's Permatang Pauh campaign:
1) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has already made history by being the first Malay politician to ever actually win more political support through an explicitly non-racial platform.
2) He publicly and repeatedly proclaimed that his commitment is to the sovereignty of the people — hence "ketuanan rakyat".
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
My Economic Perspective
My Economic Perspective
by AW
23 June 2008
After doing a lot of reading, here's my perspective on the current economic situation (I'm no financial expert, but would like to share my knowledge and experience with all friends/colleagues. Do also give me your opinions):
Most parts of the world (China/India not included) will be experiencing a period of STAGFLATION (meaning inflation and recession co-existing).
Before I talk about the current economic situation, let me share a few pointers.
During a typical economic boom/bust cycle: INTEREST RATE is raised by the government to curb a TYPICAL INFLATION (My definition of TYPICAL INFLATION is the rise of consumer prices due to economic boom). In a period of strong economic boom, share markets will rise, business revenues/profits will increase, which will then be followed by more bank borrowing for business expansions and property purchases. Hence inflation will rise, and interest rates will be raised by the government to discourage excessive borrowing and to curb overheating of the economy. Interest rates are also raised when more and more borrowings cause a reduction in money supply (in other words, money as a commodity becomes more expensive).
However, during a non-typical era, a sudden hike in interest rates is done to strengthen the currency. Which is why during the 1997-98 financial crisis, our then DPM Anwar Ibrahim raised interest rates to extraordinary levels to discourage the excessive dumping of the Ringgit. Also, when speculators start dumping the Ringgit, money supply becomes less, hence money becomes more expensive (And then, Mahathir did the unexpected... but that's another story for another day). Do bear in mind that interest rates were also gradually raised prior to the crisis to curb overheating of the Malaysian economy.
Back to present day.
We are however, NOT in a period of a TYPICAL inflation. We're in a period of inflation caused by HIGH COMMODITY PRICES, which in turn are caused by these 4 factors:
- high commodity demands from China/India,
- rising world population leading to rising consumption of commodities
- supply shortages from peaking of natural resources
- speculators moving their money from the declining US currency, housing and stock markets to Commodity Futures markets.
Except for China/India, most countries are experiencing a looming recession coupled with inflation (STAGFLATION).
In Malaysia, I expect the following to happen:
1) House Prices
- New launches will be less due to lower demand. However, new launches will see price increases of 10 to 30% due to high raw material and energy prices.
- Secondary sub-sale markets (second-hand houses) will initially not experience price increases. From the inefficient market theory, second-hand house prices will react slower to the high commodity prices. Furthermore, a looming recession will slow down demands. However, for houses in good/prime locations, the prices will later rise in tandem with new launches. For those loaded with cash, this is a good opportunity to take advantage of the said inefficient market, to buy undervalued houses at prime locations. I repeat, prime locations.
- CAUTION: If you're taking bank loans, beware of rising interest rates!!!
2) Interest Rates
- With a looming recession, initially the goverment will be reluctant to increase interest rates as the inflation is not caused by overheating of the economy (as explained earlier) but by high commodity prices (external factors).
- Secondly, raising the interest rates will cause our Ringgit to strengthen against the US Dollar. This will harm our export market as the US is still one of the biggest importers of Malaysian products.
- But I believe the current low interest rates will not last forever. We should see interest rates in China/India be raised further to curb their economy from overheating; which will then be followed by the US and later by the Malaysian government.
- Hence, interest rate in Malaysia is expected to be raised in the long term, but only gradually. Don't expect interest rates to shoot up like during the 1997-98 crisis (reasons for that already explained earlier), unless of course we get another round of currency attacks, which is highly unlikely.
CONCLUSION
- So for those who are looking to buy houses, buy undervalued SECOND-HAND houses at prime locations.
- To insulate against expected rises of interest rates, go for a low-premium fixed interest rate loan (eg AIA's prevalent fixed interest rate loan is at 5.8%). Although AIA's rate is 1% higher than the lowest variable rate offered by OCBC, PBB and EON (BLR - 2% = 4.75%), I expect BLR to gradually increase in the long term.
- For those who have lots of cash but are not willing to invest in properties, I suggest you keep your money in low-risk NON-EQUITY funds that can appreciate 5-8% p.a. (I mentioned NON-EQUITY because the share market is expected to decline due to shrinking corporate profits caused by high raw material and energy costs). If in the long term, if you just keep your cash in savings/FD, you'd be unable to hedge your money against inflation. Unless of course you are a high-risk investor who intends to use your cash to buy over stocks/companies that crash.
There is a catch to what I mentioned above. In a worst case scenario, if the world economy experience a total financial and economic collapse, then we will have an era similar to the 1930s depression, where figuratively, everyone dies.
So buckle up your belts because we're headed for, at the very least a recoverable "flood", or at the very worst, a feared "tsunami".
AW
23 June 2008
An After-thought
I believe this decade is cursed. 9/11 attacks, terrorism, wars, global warming, draughts, floods, haze, bush fires, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, SARS, bird-flu, energy crisis, food crisis, dollar crisis, commodities depletion, over-population, etc. you name it.
As Billy Joel once sang: We Didn't Start The Fire, But It Was Always Burning Since The World's BeenTurning...
by AW
23 June 2008
After doing a lot of reading, here's my perspective on the current economic situation (I'm no financial expert, but would like to share my knowledge and experience with all friends/colleagues. Do also give me your opinions):
Most parts of the world (China/India not included) will be experiencing a period of STAGFLATION (meaning inflation and recession co-existing).
Before I talk about the current economic situation, let me share a few pointers.
During a typical economic boom/bust cycle: INTEREST RATE is raised by the government to curb a TYPICAL INFLATION (My definition of TYPICAL INFLATION is the rise of consumer prices due to economic boom). In a period of strong economic boom, share markets will rise, business revenues/profits will increase, which will then be followed by more bank borrowing for business expansions and property purchases. Hence inflation will rise, and interest rates will be raised by the government to discourage excessive borrowing and to curb overheating of the economy. Interest rates are also raised when more and more borrowings cause a reduction in money supply (in other words, money as a commodity becomes more expensive).
However, during a non-typical era, a sudden hike in interest rates is done to strengthen the currency. Which is why during the 1997-98 financial crisis, our then DPM Anwar Ibrahim raised interest rates to extraordinary levels to discourage the excessive dumping of the Ringgit. Also, when speculators start dumping the Ringgit, money supply becomes less, hence money becomes more expensive (And then, Mahathir did the unexpected... but that's another story for another day). Do bear in mind that interest rates were also gradually raised prior to the crisis to curb overheating of the Malaysian economy.
Back to present day.
We are however, NOT in a period of a TYPICAL inflation. We're in a period of inflation caused by HIGH COMMODITY PRICES, which in turn are caused by these 4 factors:
- high commodity demands from China/India,
- rising world population leading to rising consumption of commodities
- supply shortages from peaking of natural resources
- speculators moving their money from the declining US currency, housing and stock markets to Commodity Futures markets.
Except for China/India, most countries are experiencing a looming recession coupled with inflation (STAGFLATION).
In Malaysia, I expect the following to happen:
1) House Prices
- New launches will be less due to lower demand. However, new launches will see price increases of 10 to 30% due to high raw material and energy prices.
- Secondary sub-sale markets (second-hand houses) will initially not experience price increases. From the inefficient market theory, second-hand house prices will react slower to the high commodity prices. Furthermore, a looming recession will slow down demands. However, for houses in good/prime locations, the prices will later rise in tandem with new launches. For those loaded with cash, this is a good opportunity to take advantage of the said inefficient market, to buy undervalued houses at prime locations. I repeat, prime locations.
- CAUTION: If you're taking bank loans, beware of rising interest rates!!!
2) Interest Rates
- With a looming recession, initially the goverment will be reluctant to increase interest rates as the inflation is not caused by overheating of the economy (as explained earlier) but by high commodity prices (external factors).
- Secondly, raising the interest rates will cause our Ringgit to strengthen against the US Dollar. This will harm our export market as the US is still one of the biggest importers of Malaysian products.
- But I believe the current low interest rates will not last forever. We should see interest rates in China/India be raised further to curb their economy from overheating; which will then be followed by the US and later by the Malaysian government.
- Hence, interest rate in Malaysia is expected to be raised in the long term, but only gradually. Don't expect interest rates to shoot up like during the 1997-98 crisis (reasons for that already explained earlier), unless of course we get another round of currency attacks, which is highly unlikely.
CONCLUSION
- So for those who are looking to buy houses, buy undervalued SECOND-HAND houses at prime locations.
- To insulate against expected rises of interest rates, go for a low-premium fixed interest rate loan (eg AIA's prevalent fixed interest rate loan is at 5.8%). Although AIA's rate is 1% higher than the lowest variable rate offered by OCBC, PBB and EON (BLR - 2% = 4.75%), I expect BLR to gradually increase in the long term.
- For those who have lots of cash but are not willing to invest in properties, I suggest you keep your money in low-risk NON-EQUITY funds that can appreciate 5-8% p.a. (I mentioned NON-EQUITY because the share market is expected to decline due to shrinking corporate profits caused by high raw material and energy costs). If in the long term, if you just keep your cash in savings/FD, you'd be unable to hedge your money against inflation. Unless of course you are a high-risk investor who intends to use your cash to buy over stocks/companies that crash.
There is a catch to what I mentioned above. In a worst case scenario, if the world economy experience a total financial and economic collapse, then we will have an era similar to the 1930s depression, where figuratively, everyone dies.
So buckle up your belts because we're headed for, at the very least a recoverable "flood", or at the very worst, a feared "tsunami".
AW
23 June 2008
An After-thought
I believe this decade is cursed. 9/11 attacks, terrorism, wars, global warming, draughts, floods, haze, bush fires, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, SARS, bird-flu, energy crisis, food crisis, dollar crisis, commodities depletion, over-population, etc. you name it.
As Billy Joel once sang: We Didn't Start The Fire, But It Was Always Burning Since The World's BeenTurning...
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